Presidential Communication and Stock Market Reactions: Evidence of Abnormal Returns Following Post-Election Presidential Statements in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

This paper examines whether U.S. equity markets generate abnormal returns in response to presidential communications following the November 2024 election. Applying event-study methodology to 40 classified communication events, we estimate cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) using the S&P 500 market model over a 250-day estimation window. Positive-sentiment events produce a three-day CAR of +0.97%; negative-sentiment events produce −1.23%, with near-perfect sign consistency (93–100%). Negative events exhibit significant post-announcement reversal (+1.05% over days +2 to +10), consistent with investor overreaction. Sector heterogeneity is pronounced: Energy and Materials exceed 1.1% CAR while Healthcare remains below 0.5%.